Washington aerospace think tank issues warning to the Air Force

A U.S. Air Force F-15E Strike Eagle is refueled over the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility, Jan. 23, 2025. The F-15E’s superior maneuverability and acceleration are achieved through its high engine thrust-to-weight ratio and low-wing loading. (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. William Rio Rosado)

The U.S. Air Force is facing a critical shortage of pilots, particularly among its fighter ranks, which is threatening its ability to maintain combat readiness and execute national security missions, according to a new policy paper from the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies. Authored by Heather R. Penney, a Senior Resident Fellow, the report outlines the dire state of the Air Force’s pilot corps and calls for immediate action to address systemic challenges.

The report, titled Want Combat Airpower? Then Fix the Air Force Pilot Crisis, warns that the current pilot shortage—estimated at approximately 2,000 pilots, with over half being fighter pilots—undermines the Air Force’s readiness for a potential peer-level conflict. This shortage, compounded by an aging aircraft fleet, limits the Air Force’s ability to sustain operations in a high-stakes war scenario or respond to other national security requirements.

The report emphasizes that combat pilot experience is crucial to mission success. Experienced pilots have higher survival rates and better mission outcomes, and their expertise benefits junior pilots in combat situations. However, budget cuts, reduced training opportunities, and plans to decommission aircraft squadrons in the Reserve Component are eroding this critical pool of expertise.

Fighter aircraft play a central role in modern warfare, performing tasks such as establishing air superiority, neutralizing enemy missile defenses, and supporting ground forces. Without sufficient experienced pilots and combat-ready aircraft, the U.S. risks losing its strategic edge.


To address the crisis, the Mitchell Institute proposes a comprehensive strategy focused on:

  • Recapitalizing the Air Force’s Combat Fleet: Nearly the entire inventory of combat aircraft needs to be modernized or replaced to ensure technological and operational relevance.
  • Growing Combat Capacity: Expanding the Air Force’s force structure by increasing the number of operational squadrons and aircraft is essential for maintaining readiness and strategic depth.
  • Leveraging the Reserve Component (RC): The Air National Guard and Air Force Reserve house the majority of the nation’s experienced combat pilots. Fully utilizing this resource and halting plans to decommission RC combat units will help preserve critical pilot expertise.

The report highlights that generating experienced pilots takes years, meaning changes must occur well before a conflict arises. Current plans to retire nearly a quarter of the Air Force’s combat aircraft inventory—primarily from the Reserve Component—would exacerbate the problem by depleting the nation’s pilot pool and combat readiness.

“The Air Force’s ability to prevail in a peer conflict depends on its ability to grow and sustain a healthy pilot corps and a modernized fleet,” said Penney. “Without immediate investment and strategic reform, the U.S. risks falling behind its adversaries in air combat capabilities.”

This pilot shortage is not just an Air Force issue—it has significant implications for U.S. national security. Air dominance is a cornerstone of joint force operations, enabling ground, sea, and cyber missions to succeed. As the U.S. faces growing threats from near-peer adversaries like China and Russia, the Air Force’s ability to adapt and respond will be critical to maintaining global stability.

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